Monday, November 27, 2006
It Is Civil War
Speaking about Iraq being on the brink of civil war, Kofi Annan recently had this to say: "I think given the developments on the ground, unless something is done drastically and urgently to arrest the deteriorating situation, we could be there. In fact we are almost there." I understand why the White House or the Pentagon would want to postpone labelling Iraq's current situation as a civil war, but why would the U.N. beat around the (no pun intended) bush? With the sectarian violence raging out of control like it has for two years, why call it anything else? What is the definition of a civil war?
Well, according to a recent article in the Times (Ed Wong, 11/26/06), there are two main criteria that define a civil war. 1) The warring parties are from same country and vying for control of political center, separatist state, or for a significant change in policy. 2) At least 1,000 killed, a 100 minimum from each side. The second condition has been fulfilled since the earliest days after the invasion. Some estimates put the death toll for Iraqis at 50,000 since March of 2003. The first condition is debated by the White House which claims that the fighters are terrorists motivated only by a desire to sow chaos, that there is no political objective and no clearly indentifiable leader.
Huh?
The seemingly endless occurrences of revenge killings and suicide attacks carried out in ethnically homogenous neighborhoods makes me think of another term besides civil war. Genocide. If not battling for control of the government, what we are seeing is an increasingly violent segregation of the Sunni and Shiite communities within Iraq. Is it impossible to imagine this situation continuing to deteriorate until there are larger-scale, highly coordinated ethnic cleansings of entire neighborhoods and regions?
Kofi Annan, a rose is a rose by any other name. And Iraq is certainly no rose, sir. Iraq is either involved in a civil war or in a two-way genocidal conflict. It is no longer feasible to believe what is happening is simply an insurgency against the Iraqi governement and US occupation, nor an international terrorist campaign a la Al-Qaeda/Hezbollah/Iran/Syria on Western-styled democracy taking root in the Middle East. Iraqis are killing Iraqis over the direction of their country, over who controls the various ministries and security forces, over eye-for-eye and tooth-for-tooth cycles of violence.
Ignoring this reality is getting Iraq nowhere fast.
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Well, according to a recent article in the Times (Ed Wong, 11/26/06), there are two main criteria that define a civil war. 1) The warring parties are from same country and vying for control of political center, separatist state, or for a significant change in policy. 2) At least 1,000 killed, a 100 minimum from each side. The second condition has been fulfilled since the earliest days after the invasion. Some estimates put the death toll for Iraqis at 50,000 since March of 2003. The first condition is debated by the White House which claims that the fighters are terrorists motivated only by a desire to sow chaos, that there is no political objective and no clearly indentifiable leader.
Huh?
The seemingly endless occurrences of revenge killings and suicide attacks carried out in ethnically homogenous neighborhoods makes me think of another term besides civil war. Genocide. If not battling for control of the government, what we are seeing is an increasingly violent segregation of the Sunni and Shiite communities within Iraq. Is it impossible to imagine this situation continuing to deteriorate until there are larger-scale, highly coordinated ethnic cleansings of entire neighborhoods and regions?
Kofi Annan, a rose is a rose by any other name. And Iraq is certainly no rose, sir. Iraq is either involved in a civil war or in a two-way genocidal conflict. It is no longer feasible to believe what is happening is simply an insurgency against the Iraqi governement and US occupation, nor an international terrorist campaign a la Al-Qaeda/Hezbollah/Iran/Syria on Western-styled democracy taking root in the Middle East. Iraqis are killing Iraqis over the direction of their country, over who controls the various ministries and security forces, over eye-for-eye and tooth-for-tooth cycles of violence.
Ignoring this reality is getting Iraq nowhere fast.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Hope for Tomorrow
Happy Day, Happy Day, O Happy Day!
Though it's still too soon to be certain, it seems the people of America (those that showed up to vote, at least) have chosen so far to give 4 Senate seats, 28 House seats and 6 Governorships to the Democrats. With a few more possibly on the way. O, Happy Day! I don't believe it! I don't believe I've felt this good about the state of America, the state of the national political conscience, and the integrity, security and dependability of the voting process in many years. (Six to be exact.)
A dark cloud hung over our heads, my friends. For six long years.
It started in November of 2000, with a narrow election coming down to a single state with the narrowest of margins evident in final exit polling. Gore won. No, Bush won (if you check Fox News.) Bush announces victory.
A long, dark cloud. Supreme Court announces its decision of the Florida recount. It doesn't count. Bush wins on gift of Florida. Gore loses despite popular vote.
A long, dark cloud. Falling buildings. The mass massacre. Sudden vulnerability.
A long, dark cloud. War on the way. Go get him. Bomb those hills till the rat emerges. Smoke him out. Squash his friends. A long, dark cloud. Wedding in Uruzgan.
A long, dark cloud. WMD's. Mobile bioweapons labs. Aluminum tubes. 'Failed' Inspections. Go get him. (Presaging, Ladies & Gentlemen, We Got Him.) Bomb Baghdad till the rat emerges. Smoke him out of his hole. Liberate his enemies. Disband his friends.
A long, dark cloud. Where are the WMDs? A long, dark cloud. Abu Ghraib, X-Ray, John Ashcroft, Bremer. (Ladies & Gentlemen, We Got Him.) Beheadings. CIA says Civil War. US Toll +1000.
A long, dark cloud. Bush defeats Kerry. Tin Soldiers and Diebold Coming, All Comes Down to Ohio. The idiot reelected. Incompetence institutionalized. Arrogance promoted.
A long, dark cloud. Fallujah. A long, dark cloud. 1000 killed in bridge stampede. Shrine massacres. A long, dark cloud. Death Squads. Drill holes in corpses.
A long, dark cloud. Days of forewarning. A long, dark cloud. Predictions of disaster. A long, dark cloud. Bodies floating in rivers. Bodies turned around at bridges. Bodies crammed into the Superdome.
A long, dark cloud. Corruption in the halls. Abramoff. Delay. Ney. Foley. Haggard. A long, dark cloud. US Death Toll +2800. Iraq Toll Untold.
But today, my friends, today the American people asked for change.
Tomorrow, my friends, we wait to see if that change is delivered.
I have hope that this little ray of sun peaking through the long, dark cloud presages a brighter tomorrow.
Though it's still too soon to be certain, it seems the people of America (those that showed up to vote, at least) have chosen so far to give 4 Senate seats, 28 House seats and 6 Governorships to the Democrats. With a few more possibly on the way. O, Happy Day! I don't believe it! I don't believe I've felt this good about the state of America, the state of the national political conscience, and the integrity, security and dependability of the voting process in many years. (Six to be exact.)
A dark cloud hung over our heads, my friends. For six long years.
It started in November of 2000, with a narrow election coming down to a single state with the narrowest of margins evident in final exit polling. Gore won. No, Bush won (if you check Fox News.) Bush announces victory.
A long, dark cloud. Supreme Court announces its decision of the Florida recount. It doesn't count. Bush wins on gift of Florida. Gore loses despite popular vote.
A long, dark cloud. Falling buildings. The mass massacre. Sudden vulnerability.
A long, dark cloud. War on the way. Go get him. Bomb those hills till the rat emerges. Smoke him out. Squash his friends. A long, dark cloud. Wedding in Uruzgan.
A long, dark cloud. WMD's. Mobile bioweapons labs. Aluminum tubes. 'Failed' Inspections. Go get him. (Presaging, Ladies & Gentlemen, We Got Him.) Bomb Baghdad till the rat emerges. Smoke him out of his hole. Liberate his enemies. Disband his friends.
A long, dark cloud. Where are the WMDs? A long, dark cloud. Abu Ghraib, X-Ray, John Ashcroft, Bremer. (Ladies & Gentlemen, We Got Him.) Beheadings. CIA says Civil War. US Toll +1000.
A long, dark cloud. Bush defeats Kerry. Tin Soldiers and Diebold Coming, All Comes Down to Ohio. The idiot reelected. Incompetence institutionalized. Arrogance promoted.
A long, dark cloud. Fallujah. A long, dark cloud. 1000 killed in bridge stampede. Shrine massacres. A long, dark cloud. Death Squads. Drill holes in corpses.
A long, dark cloud. Days of forewarning. A long, dark cloud. Predictions of disaster. A long, dark cloud. Bodies floating in rivers. Bodies turned around at bridges. Bodies crammed into the Superdome.
A long, dark cloud. Corruption in the halls. Abramoff. Delay. Ney. Foley. Haggard. A long, dark cloud. US Death Toll +2800. Iraq Toll Untold.
But today, my friends, today the American people asked for change.
Tomorrow, my friends, we wait to see if that change is delivered.
I have hope that this little ray of sun peaking through the long, dark cloud presages a brighter tomorrow.
